Americans concerned about post-election violence, efforts to overturn results, AP-NORC poll finds

David Washington, J & Washington Political Firm, joins LiveNOW from FOX to talk about the final push in the race to the White House. Former President Trump is in New York while Vice President Kamala Harris is campaigning in Philadelphia, PA.
WASHINGTON – Many Americans are feeling election anxiety related to what could follow after ballots are cast, including the potential for political violence, attempts to overturn the results, and the implications for the world’s oldest democracy. 
A new poll, conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, found that about 4 in 10 registered voters are “extremely” or “very” concerned about violent attempts to overturn the results after the November election. 
A similar share is worried about legal efforts to do so, according to the poll, and about 1 in 3 voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about attempts by local or state election officials to stop the results from being finalized.
About one-third or less are “not very” or “not at all” concerned about any of that happening, the poll found. 
FILE – Trump supporters clash with police and security forces as people try to storm the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Brent Stirton/Getty Images)
The poll results come nearly four years after former President Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 election results inspired a mob of his supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol in a violent attempt to stop the peaceful transfer of power.
Throughout his 2024 campaign, Trump has continued his refusal to accept the results four years ago and is again forecasting that he can lose this time only if the election is rigged against him. His allies and the Republican National Committee have filed lawsuits around the country that are a potential prelude to post-election legal challenges should he lose.
Trump’s attempts to remain in power after his 2020 loss have led to concerns that he will again fail to concede should he lose to Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. 
The new poll found that nearly 9 in 10 voters said the loser of the presidential election is obligated to concede once every state has finished counting its votes and legal challenges are resolved, including about 8 in 10 Republicans. 
But only about one-third of voters expect Trump to accept the results and concede if he loses.
Democrats and Republicans have widely divergent views on the matter, the poll found. 
About two-thirds of Republican voters think Trump would concede, compared to only about 1 in 10 Democrats.
Meanwhile, the same concern does not apply to Harris. Nearly 8 in 10 voters said Harris will accept the results and concede if she loses the election, including a solid majority of Republican voters.
Democrats and Republicans have broad concerns about how American democracy might fare depending on the outcome of the November election, according to the AP-NORC poll. 
Overall, about half of voters believe Trump would weaken democracy in the U.S. “a lot” or “somewhat” if he wins, while about 4 in 10 said the same of Harris.
Not surprisingly, Americans were deeply divided along ideological lines. The poll found that about 8 in 10 Republicans said another term for Trump would strengthen democracy “a lot” or “somewhat,” while a similar share of Democrats said the same of a Harris presidency.
About 9 in 10 voters in each party said the opposing party’s candidate would be likely to weaken democracy at least “somewhat” if elected.
Part of what divides voters on their views of American democracy is the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and who is to blame. Democrats and independents are much more likely than Republican voters to place “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of responsibility on Trump, according to the AP-NORC poll.
Robert Alexander, a political science professor at Ohio Northern University and author of ‘Representation and the Electoral College’ breaks down the history and representation of the Electoral College.
In the AP-NORC poll, about half of voters think the possibility that a candidate could become president by winning the Electoral College but losing the popular vote is a “major problem” in U.S. elections. 
That’s happened several times before, including in 2000 and as recently as 2016 – when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote and Trump the electoral vote.
As with many other issues, the question also reveals a partisan divide: About two-thirds of Democrats say the potential for an Electoral College-popular vote split is a major problem, compared to about one-third of Republicans.
A separate poll, conducted last month by Gallup, found that 58% of Americans actually favor amending the Constitution to elect presidents based on the popular vote, compared to 38% who would rather keep the current Electoral College system.
Gallup said this level of support for a popular-vote system “has been consistent in most Gallup surveys” since 2000, when the question was first asked.
This story was written based on a poll of 1,072 adults, conducted Oct. 11-14, 2024. It used a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population, the AP said. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. It was reported from Cincinnati, and the Associated Press contributed.