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MOSCOW, November 7. /TASS/. What Donald Trump’s major political comeback could mean for the world; Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu fires the country’s defense minister to pave the way for increased military pressure; and the Russian economy is staying resilient despite sanctions pressure. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Donald Trump, who represented the Republicans in the race for the presidency of the United States, secured 277 electoral votes according to preliminary data – more than 72 mln votes from the electorate. The billionaire has already pledged to restore America to its “former greatness”. For many people, the key concern is how their lives will change economically or socially under Trump, while the rest of the world eagerly awaits his first actions as the new head of the White House in the international arena. Meanwhile, the EU is worried about the possibility of a new trade war with the United States, and Russia and China are expecting a more pragmatic policy from Washington, which could potentially contribute to resolving the Ukrainian crisis.
The Republican Party, as a whole, also had an impressive showing. The Republicans took control of the Senate and are likely to retain the majority in the House of Representatives, where votes were still being counted on Wednesday. If this happens, the Republican Party will hold all the power in Washington for the next two years.
Sponsorship of Ukraine will likely be reduced, deputy director of the Institute of the USA and Canada at the Russian Academy of Sciences Sergey Kislitsyn told Vedomosti. “They will shift this responsibility to their European partners,” the expert explained. Despite Republican control, Congress will prevent Trump from “negotiating in a day,” Kislitsyn added. Moreover, China has long been, and remains, the top priority for the United States, while Ukraine is just a convenient excuse to keep Europeans under control under the pretext of the “Russian threat,” the expert concluded.
On the other hand, Donald Trump’s presidency is unlikely to bring radical changes to the situation in the Middle East, associate professor at the Department of International Business at the Financial University under the Russian Government Maxim Kazanin told Izvestia.
Continuing the Palestinian-Israeli confrontation does not align with Trump’s plans – he expects the active phase of hostilities to end before his inauguration in January, expert at the Russian International Affairs Council Kirill Semenov told Vedomosti. On the other hand, the expert continued, not all Persian Gulf monarchies will agree to normalize relations with Israel without resolving the Palestinian issue.
Additionally, Trump’s intentions to continue the trade war with China will affect the entire world, leading expert in the analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic processes at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CAMAC) Irina Ipatova told Vedomosti. If the actions of the new president slow the Chinese economy – the world’s largest consumer of oil – it will reduce overall demand for oil and gas resources, thereby impacting prices.
Trump’s election could also negatively affect renewable energy companies and exporters from Europe, Olga Belenkaya from Finam explained to Izvestia. According to her, the EU industry is already in a tough spot due to rising energy prices and competition from the United States and China, which are pursuing more supportive industrial policies.
Marina Amurskaya, Head of the Department of International Economics at the Financial University under the Russian Government, believes that there will be no significant changes in US economic policy toward Russia. Trump’s promises to “settle the Ukrainian conflict” are linked, in part, to the pressure of sanctions on Russia, which the United States will not rush to lift, despite the hopes of some Russian experts, she told Vedomosti.
“Over the next four years, the United States will become tougher and more calculating. Profit in every sense will become the core of American policy,” Konstantin Kostin, head of the Foundation for the Development of Civil Society, said in an interview with Vedomosti. “We must be prepared for constructive cooperation if the US takes such a step, as well as for further tensions,” the expert added.
US stock indexes reached new historical highs following Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential race. The US dollar also strengthened. At the same time, European markets reacted with less optimism due to the expected increase in tensions in relations with the United States. According to experts interviewed by Kommersant, the newly elected president’s policies will accelerate the deglobalization trend, which will likely lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, a decline in demand for raw materials, and could ultimately have a negative impact on the Russian budget and the ruble exchange rate.
Such a strong positive reaction from the American stock market is understandable. According to leading analyst at Tsifra Broker investment company Natalia Pyryeva, Donald Trump’s victory represents “traditional support for business and tax cuts.” Moreover, in her view, the energy and industrial sectors will benefit the most.
Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, believes that the arrival of a new US president “will strengthen the trend of deglobalization and its fragmentation into geopolitical blocs,” while increasing uncertainty in the global financial system. As a result, global investors “will prefer the more defensive dollar.”
“However, emerging markets such as Mexico and China remain under pressure – trade risks with the US are increasing, leading to capital outflows and widening credit spreads,” Astero Falcon portfolio manager Alena Nikolaeva told Kommersant.
The introduction of tariffs on Chinese imports under Donald Trump “will be aimed at boosting American industry, which could accelerate inflation, ultimately burdening ordinary consumers,” said Capital Lab partner Evgeny Shatov.
At the same time, European markets opened on Wednesday with less optimism, with the main stock indices showing gains of 2-3% at the start of trading. For the Russian market, Trump’s victory is still seen as positive. Investors expect to see easing sanctions, progress in possible negotiations on Ukraine, and the potential unblocking of Russian assets, Shatov believes.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began preparing for a new presidential term under Donald Trump. He was one of the first to congratulate the Republican on his victory on November 6, following the preliminary results. On the day of the US election, Netanyahu also fired the country’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant. According to experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta, this move appears to be a signal to the outgoing White House team, as Gallant had been seen as a key figure through whom the Joe Biden administration sought to limit the Jewish state’s military actions.
Gallant’s dismissal signals that the Israeli prime minister plans to escalate military pressure “on seven fronts” in the near future, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. In a special televised address, the outgoing defense minister cited disagreements with the prime minister on three issues as the reasons for his swift resignation: a firm stance that every person of military age should serve in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), a moral obligation to return hostages to their families and homes as soon as possible, and the establishment of a state commission to investigate the Hamas ground invasion from a year ago.
International relations expert Vladimir Frolov, a former employee of the Russian Embassy in the United States, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Gallant was the primary channel of communication through which the Biden administration attempted to restrain Netanyahu.
“Through him, the Americans coordinated most of the operations and the extent of the use of American weapons and American forces, including tankers, missile defense systems, and ships,” he explained. “Gallant opposed the gamble in Lebanon. With this move, Netanyahu is sending his regards to Biden and signaling that he will now do as he wishes, as Trump advised, even though he was asked to wrap things up before the inauguration,” the expert added.
The West should stop expecting the collapse of the Russian economy, UK military analyst Alexander Mercouris warned. According to him, the Russian economy is growing stronger under the intense pressure of sanctions. Experts told Izvestia that the Russian economy has indeed demonstrated a strong ability to adapt to sanctions, particularly evident in the rapid development of its industries.
According to Mercouris, the West still believes the Russian economy is the same as it was in 2000, but it is constantly evolving, while the reports published in the West about Russia’s dire economic situation do not reflect reality. He pointed to the investment boom and the fact that investments are being made primarily in industry, production development, and equipment purchases.
The sustained recovery is based on the impressive performance of the real sector, where Russia has shown positive momentum since March 2023, Izvestia writes. The development of Russian industry is also supported by high investment activity, despite a significant outflow of foreign investment—almost 40% less than in 2021.
“Investment activity in the country is sustained by the following factors: an increase in public investment in infrastructure projects, science, and education; growing interest from Russian private companies in new technologies and start-ups. This will allow production capacity to expand across the country. There is also a reorientation toward new foreign investors from Asian countries and the Middle East, who are showing increasing interest in the Russian market,” economist Pyotr Chuvakhin told the newspaper.
Russia’s exports are one of the key factors of its sustainability. Attempts by the West to undermine the Russian energy sector have failed: demand is rising, particularly in Asia. For example, gas supplies to China increased by 30% in 2023.
Economists also view the development of cooperation with the BRICS countries as one of the key drivers of stability for Russia. “BRICS countries hold significant potential for economic growth. Today, BRICS nations account for 36% of the world economy, while the G7 countries account for about 30%,” Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the Valdai Forum in Sochi.
The United Nations has been engaging in a series of discussions with the Yemeni parties since October to promote a peaceful settlement. The office of the UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, told Izvestia that Houthi attacks on merchant ships and the US retaliatory strikes pose a threat to the normalization process in the Arab country. Earlier, Ansar Allah told Izvestia that it was ready for the peace process. At the same time, the parties to the conflict are negotiating a ceasefire plan, which includes the reopening of transport routes.
“The Office of the Special Envoy continues to consider the ideas of Yemeni stakeholders regarding a potential ceasefire and long-term security arrangements. A series of political contacts with various Yemeni negotiators began in October 2024 to build momentum for a peaceful resolution of the conflict,” the UN noted.
The Special Envoy stressed that regional escalations, including attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Ansar Allah (Houthi) movement and retaliatory US airstrikes, threaten Yemen’s prospects for peace and stability.
Since the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in October 2023, the Houthis have consistently spoken out in defense of Palestine. On October 19, 2023, the Ansar Allah movement entered the war against Israel, launching several rockets and drones at Israel. The United States responded to the Houthi attacks on merchant ships linked to the Jewish state. In December, Washington announced Operation Prosperity Guardian, in which American and British troops began conducting regular airstrikes on Yemeni territory. According to Izvestia, this has complicated the peace process in the country, which already faces numerous challenges and remains divided among three major centers of political influence.
“A bloc of political organizations has formed in Aden around an anti-Houthi platform. This project, supported by the Americans and Saudis, has already been opposed by very influential forces in Yemen, which could trigger another split, particularly a territorial one. Thus, the process is truly on the verge of escalation, and the efforts being made by the UN Special Envoy to prevent such a development are crucial,” senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Sergey Serebrov, told Izvestia.
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